I have a prediction concerning the Labour leadership election.
I'm actually watching from the side-lines, having joined the Greens a couple of months ago. I've avoided getting involved in the debate (apart from sharing a Facebook meme of Jeremy Corbyn as Obi Wan Kenobi) or trying to blag a vote via my union, despite hoping that Corbyn will prevail and wanting to help his cause.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that rattled Labour Party insiders are looking for any straw that could be grasped in the event of a JC win to declare the contest null and void. Sadly, I don't believe they will need to do this, and this is why. A month ago, I visited the refurbished Everyman theatre in Liverpool to see 'The Hook', a stage adaptation of an Arthur Miller screenplay set in the docks of post war New York. If you haven't seen it and don't want to know how it ends, stop reading this post now, as it's the plot of this play which I fear foreshadows the result for Labour.
In the drama, a plucky longshoreman dares to challenge for the union representative's post, taking on a corrupt minor mobster who spends most of the year in Florida and the dockyard management with whom he colludes. This hero's mates and many more workers promise to back him but, on the day of the vote, the count happens in secret and the incumbent is declared the winner. We know that the villain has tried to rig the ballot by adding extra papers in his support and actually made up the numbers rather than counting, as he fears being defeated nonetheless. Our hero and his buddies storm the office and, after a tense stand-off, are allowed to count the votes for themselves. It soon becomes apparent that, even without the forged ballots, the establishment candidate was in fact victorious, and by a huge margin. The longshoreman turns on his supposed supporters; each in turn confesses, shame-faced, that he chickened out and opted for the status quo when it came to the crunch.
At the end of the performance, I couldn't help thinking of the impending Labour leadership vote. I wonder how many people currently typing 'Jez we can!' on social media will be unnerved when the time comes to make their mark by the steady drip of anti-Corbyn 'principles are no use without power' rhetoric. (Power without principles appears to be just fine to the party machine - why else ask Tony Blair's opinion?). It will take more courage than Miller's longshoremen possessed for supporters to hold their nerve and vote for 'Jezza', regardless of these siren voices and those that will be added to them in the next few days. It won't take many waverers to wreck the ship either, as only a clear first round win will do for Corbyn: there will be few supporters of the Gang of Three picking him as their no 2.
I hope I'm wrong, but I predict the outcome as a win, on second preferences, for Yvette Cooper. However, I'm unsure what to make of today's bizarre pact between her and Liz Kendall. It may help rather than hinder the Corbynite cause, with Cooper's attempts to appeal to the left wing perhaps fatally undermined by a deal with Red Tory Liz, although I suspect what they're actually after is for Kendall's supporters to back Cooper as no 1, while Kendall effectively withdraws from the race without saying as much.
As I said, I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. I would love to see the Labour Party revived as a genuinely left-wing, democratic entity and one day part of a broader left alliance Government with Green and other anti-austerity parties. But if you are planning to be brave and vote for Jeremy Corbyn, you might do well to stuff your ears with wax for the last stage of this voyage and stop reading the Guardian until you're safely back to port.
